Sunday, May 6, 2012

Jedi Master from Ashwaubenon?

On April 26th, the Green Bay Packers, winners of 13 World Championship games, participated in the 77th annual NFL Draft.  As before, the Packers' draft was led by GM Ted Thompson, who some are calling a jedi master based on his ability to work the draft and negotiate with other teams-- picking quality players and moving up or down based on the team's need.

This year, Thompson sought defensive help to bolster a team that finished dead last in 2011 on defense (total yards allowed).  There were many reasons for this dramatic flop -- chief among them was no ability to rush the quarterback, and too many plays where the Packer's backfield gave up big play completions.

A typical third down would go like this (3rd and 8 from the Packers' 42):  the Packers send three rushers to sack the quarterback, but get no pressure.  Given the time, the other team's quarterback sits in the pocket and tosses a 12-yard completion for another first down.

For this year's draft, Thompson drafted five defensive players, ranging from a couple of interior linemen to an outside linebacker and corner back.  Despite Thompson's denial, it certainly looked like his goal was to pick defensive players who would help on that side of the ball.  It wasn't until the seventh round that he picked someone on offense.

What all of this tells me is that Thompson thinks the Packers are close to winning another Super Bowl -- with Aaron Rodgers leading the pack, throwing to the league's best wide receivers and tight ends.  Last year's offensive was formidable, finishing third in the league at 6,848 total yards.  By passing for 334 yards and rushing for 132 yards per game, the Packers were able to overcome defensive lapses and late game collapses.  It allowed the team to win 15 games, a feat accomplished by only a handful of teams, including the Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New England Patriots.  Unfortunately, it did nothing to help them in their post season loss to the New York Giants, falling 37-20 to the eventual world champions.

A loss is a loss, even if your regular season record is 15-1.

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The early years of Ted Thompson as general manager of the Green Bay Packers were marked by the departure of high priced free agents like Marco Rivera, Mike Wahle and Darren Sharper.  Not wanting to spend money on aging free agents, Thompson let many good players walk.  Initially, the Packers were unable to replace the lost talent and finished 2005 with a record of 4-12.  Thompson did, however, spend his first draft pick on a quarterback named Aaron Rodgers, who had fallen to them late in the first round.  It was a pick that was questioned by many draft experts, because Favre was still doing well as the team's quarterback.  The following January, Thompson decided to fire head coach Mike Sherman and replace him with Mike McCarthy.

In no time, he had gone from the GM of a division-winning, 13-3 team to one with a losing record, a new coach, a fading quarterback and a town restless with a decade-old Super Bowl trophy.  Thompson realized that the Packers' previous success could not be maintained through older, high-priced players.  The reshaping of the Packers was just beginning.

Instead of jumping into the free agent frenzy, he stock piled his draft choices, often trading down to acquire more picks.  In 2006 and 2007, he had 12 and 11 draft picks, among them were defensive linebacker A. J. Hawk and wide receiver Greg Jennings.  Free agent signings included Charles Woodson, Ryan Grant and Ryan Pickett (all considered low priced and even risky, as was the case with Woodson who did not want to play in Green Bay).  By the end of 2007, the Packers were back in the NFC Conference Championship game against the N.Y Giants, and Thompson was voted Sporting News Executive of the Year.

Just when the team looked like it was heading in the right direction, Brett Favre left the Packers in 2008 (after retiring); many people put the blame on Ted Thompson for the struggles the team quickly endured.  Despite coming within a game of the Super Bowl, many fans gave the credit to Favre and Coach McCarthy.  Thompson's reputation for fairly conservative draft picks, a reluctance to trade up to get key players, and refusal to go after high priced free agents led a lot of Packer faithful to hate the man whose job it was to build a championship team.

Despite the constant fan criticism (including a website dedicated to getting him fired), Thompson stuck to his plan.  The Packers became a talented -- but young -- team with tremendous upside, led by an improving quarterback who refused to live under the shadow of Favre.  As additional draft pieces were added, the Packer's record continued to improve, ultimately  leading to playoff wins, then a trip to the Super Bowl.  In February of 2011, the team claimed their fourth Super Bowl trophy, defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Unlike many past winners, the Packers had built their championship team through Thompson's smart draft choices and home grown talent.  The team remains one of the youngest teams in the league and has a terrific chance of multiple Super Bowl wins in the years to come.

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It's too early to tell whether Ted Thompson has  hit the mark with this year's picks.  Clearly, the need was for help on the defensive side of the ball.

What is intriguing is how Thompson moved up two times to acquire a player he wanted.  By negotiating trades with New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals, the Packers chose Jerel Worthy from Michigan State and Casey Hayward From Vanderbilt.  By giving up later round picks, Thompson was able to draft twice in the second round and snare talented players that will immediately improve our defense.

The selection of Worthy and first round pick, Nick Perry from University of Southern California, is designed to put more speed and muscle into the backfield of opposing teams.  Perry will line up opposite Clay Matthews to give the Packers a dual pass rush designed to sack the quarterback.  Teams will no longer be able to focus on Matthews, who saw his sack production drop from the year before.  Backfield help in the safety and corner back position should force opposing quarterbacks to hang onto the ball until Matthews and company arrive.

A number of draft experts gave Thompson and the Packers an "A" grade in this year's draft.  I've always been skeptical about grades so early in a player's tenure in the NFL, but if coaching can get our first or second round picks to play to their ability, we will have once again have drafted better than any other team in the NFC, if not the entire NFL.

Going into the new season, the Packers are a 7-1 odds favorite to win the Super Bowl again.  With an improved defense, I'm confident they will once again be a force going into the 2012 season.


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